Congratulations! You’ve made it through another week of fantasy football, and thanks to your waiver wire position, you have a shiny new toy at quarterback. Because, much like the Chicago Bears, you’re looking for some new blood to invigorate your team with the addition of Mitch Trubisky as your team’s QB1.
Let’s talk about that for a moment.
Trubisky will become the 11th rookie to start at quarterback for the Bears since 1970, which marks the start of the Super Bowl Era. He will become the sixth Bears rookie to do it in the last 19 years, joining the likes of Moses Moreno (1998), Cade McNown (1999), Rex Grossman (2003), Craig Krenzel (2004), and Kyle Orton (2005). Of that group, only Grossman (you can check out that win here) and Krenzel (yeah, seriously) were winners in their first starts.
Of course, what Grossman and Krenzel did more than a decade ago has no significance on what Trubisky will do Monday night. But it’s fun to take a trip down memory lane. Now, let’s never mention names like Krenzel or Moreno ever again. Deal?
So what do Trubisky’s projections look like? Well, let’s blend some fantasy with reality and see what comes up.
The outlook from Yahoo! Fantasy Football has Trubisky at 178 passing yards, 0.8 TD, 0.6 INT, 1.8 rushing attempts, 8.1 yards, and a projected Week 5 score of 12.2 points – which slots him as the site’s 26th ranked starter in Week 5. With this being a bye week for several teams, the only starters rated lower than Trubisky are Josh McCown (12.1 points) and E.J. Manuel (10.9).
Coming into the season, Pro Football Focus ranked the Vikings secondary as the ninth best in the league. The group is headlined by cornerback Xavier Rhodes, who limited opposing quarterbacks to a 47.0 passer rating. Rhodes is one of the rare cornerbacks who provides shadow coverage on a team’s best receiver.
Rhodes shadowed Marvin Jones Jr. on 88 percent of his routes, Antonio Brown on 73 percent, and Mike Evans at a 73 percent rate, according to Pro Football Focus’ data. Quarterbacks throwing to those receivers when Rhodes covered them completed 10 of 20 passes, gained 132 yards through the air, and posted a 71.3 rating. I’m no quarterback whisperer, but Trubisky would be wise to target anyone who isn’t being blanketed by Rhodes in Week 5.
According to Yahoo!’s data, the Vikings are giving up the 13th fewest points to opposing quarterbacks and the group is coming off a week in which it limited Matthew Stafford to 9.4 points. However, the defense did allow an average of 18.9 points in the first three weeks when it faced Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, and Jameis Winston – who was a top scorer despite throwing three interceptions because he threw for 328 yards and two touchdowns.
If you want to dream the biggest dreams, I won’t stop you. However, heed these words of advice and proceed with caution. Don’t start Trubisky unless you’re in a two-quarterback league or absolutely have to. And relax, we’ll tell you when it’s safe to start the rookie signal caller again.